US-Iran Tensions Shake Global Markets: Can the IHSG Hold Its Ground?

The geopolitical landscape has taken a sharp turn as the conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel intensifies. Following a series of military escalations over the weekend, global financial markets are bracing for a period of heightened volatility. For investors in Indonesia, the primary concern is the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), which is currently facing significant downward pressure as global sentiment sours.

Market analysts are already sounding the alarm, suggesting that the IHSG could potentially slip back below the 8,000 mark. This mirrors the cautious atmosphere seen in early February when major global rating agencies and MSCI expressed concerns regarding Indonesia’s capital market stability and its long-term fiscal policies. As the conflict unfolds, the primary driver for market movement is no longer just local corporate earnings, but the unpredictable nature of international warfare.

The Shift in Global Risk Profiles

According to a recent analysis from Phintraco Sekuritas, the military engagement between the US and Iran is fundamentally altering how global investors perceive risk. While the duration of this conflict remains uncertain, the immediate reaction is a flight to safety. Investors are increasingly hesitant to hold risky assets, opting instead to reduce their exposure to emerging markets like Indonesia until the dust settles.

One of the most direct consequences of this tension is the surge in energy prices. When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, the global supply chain for oil and gas is immediately put under threat. This inevitably leads to higher energy costs, which acts as a drag on global economic growth and fuels inflationary fears—a combination that rarely bodes well for equity markets.

Technical Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

From a technical perspective, the road ahead for the IHSG looks challenging. Analysts at Phintraco have pointed out that if the index fails to maintain its footing at the 8,100 level this week, we could see a further slide toward the 8,000 to 7,800 range. This would represent a significant correction from recent highs.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. There is a window of opportunity for a rebound if global tensions begin to de-escalate and if Indonesia's internal economic foundations remain solid. The market is currently in a 'wait and see' mode, looking for any sign of stability that could trigger a recovery.

Domestic Indicators to Watch

While global news headlines are dominated by missiles and military maneuvers, seasoned investors are keeping a close eye on local data. In early March, several key economic indicators will be released that could provide the IHSG with some much-needed domestic support. These include the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the trade balance for January, and the inflation and foreign exchange reserve data for February 2026.

Furthermore, there is a silver lining in international trade policy. The recent reduction in US import tariffs—dropping from 19% to 15%—could serve as a vital catalyst for Indonesian export-oriented sectors. This policy shift might provide a necessary cushion, helping to offset some of the negative sentiment bleeding in from the Middle East.

Commodities and Global Market Reactions

The impact of the conflict is perhaps most visible in the commodities market. Gold, the traditional safe-haven asset, saw its spot price jump by over 1.5%, reaching an impressive $5,360 per troy ounce during the early Asian session. Meanwhile, energy markets are on fire; both WTI and Brent crude oil prices have surged by more than 7%, trading above $71 and $78 per barrel, respectively.

In the West, the reaction has been equally sharp. Futures for the S&P 500 dropped more than 1%, while Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite futures fell by 1.17% and 1.13%, respectively. The VIX Index, often referred to as the market's 'fear gauge,' sat at 19.85 after peaking at 21.74 last Friday. This indicates that while fear is high, the market is desperately searching for a new equilibrium in a world that feels increasingly unstable.